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Markets in holding pattern ahead of Fed
*
<strong>US terminal rate expectations are rising, lifting USD</strong>
*
<b>Dollar/yen steadies at 154.06</b>
<u><strong>(Updates with European morning trading)</strong></u>
<strong><u>By Amanda Cooper and Tom Westbrook</u></strong>
LONDON/SINGAPORE, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Tuesday ahead of an expected interest rate
cut in the United States, as traders grow increasingly convinced the Federal
Reserve will lower borrowing rates only gradually next year.
The euro, which is heading for a drop of nearly 5% against the dollar this year, traded at $1.04823 ahead of the Fed decision.
The gap between U.S. and German 10-year yields is 216
basis points, near its widest in five years, having increased by nearly 70 bps in three
months, which has further weighed on the euro.
The Fed announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday and interest rate futures imply a
94% chance of a cut, even as services-sector activity leapt to a
three-year high, according to an S&P Global purchasing
managers survey.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator is running at
3.3% for the fourth quarter, and the strength of the economy has been lifting yields and supporting the dollar as traders figure that the neutral setting for rates may be higher than first thought.
"We're looking for the Fed to indicate more caution over future path of rate cuts. So 25 basis points is a done deal this week, but the key question is, obviously, what happens next year," MUFG currency strategist Lee Hardman said.
"We do think there's a higher likelihood that we will see the Fed skip the next meeting in January to leave rates on hold," he said.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
He has already promised a raft of measures to impose tariffs on imports from the likes of China, Canada and Mexico, as well as the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants -
both of which could contribute to a sustained pickup
in inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting rates more deeply.
Fed officials' median long-run interest rate projection was 2.9% in September.
Right now, market pricing implies almost no chance of rates being that low by December next year and only a 30% chance of
the Fed Funds rate falling below 3.75% by the end of 2025.
<u><b>RATE DECISIONS AHEAD</b></u>
Price action across the currency market remained fairly contained on Tuesday, as traders held
their fire ahead of the Fed, but also ahead of policy decisions from
the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday,
which are expected to leave their respective rates unchanged.
Sweden's Riksbank also meets on Thursday and is expected to cut
rates by as much as half a point.
Sterling edged into positive territory on Tuesday after data showed regular UK pay rose more quickly than expected in the three months to October.
The BoE has frequently cited wage growth as
one of the reasons for caution around cutting rates. A survey of
British business activity on Monday pointed to rising
price pressures.
<b><u>The pound was last modestly up on the day at $1.26895.</u></b>
The Canadian dollar, squeezed by falling interest rates and
the risk of U.S. tariffs, sank to a 4-1/2 year low on Monday as
the sudden resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland put an unpopular government under more pressure.
The yen strengthened a touch, leaving the dollar down 0.17% at 153.865
per dollar, after six straight days of selling, as markets have
scaled back the chances of a Japanese rate hike this week in favour of a move
in January.
<b>The Australian and New Zealand dollars are
pinned near the year's lows.</b>
The Aussie was last down 0.4% at $0.6345, while the kiwi fell 0.4% to $0.576.
New Zealand increased its bond issuance forecast for the next few years.
China's yuan was steady at 7.2915 per dollar, as dour
expectations for Chinese economic growth pinned 10-year bond
yields near record lows.
Chinese leaders agreed last week to raise the budget deficit to
a record 4% of gross domestic product next year, while
maintaining an economic growth target of around 5%, two people
with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam,
William Maclean)
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Markets in holding pattern ahead of Fed
*
<strong>US terminal rate expectations are rising, lifting USD</strong>
*
<b>Dollar/yen steadies at 154.06</b>
<u><strong>(Updates with European morning trading)</strong></u>
<strong><u>By Amanda Cooper and Tom Westbrook</u></strong>
LONDON/SINGAPORE, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Tuesday ahead of an expected interest rate
cut in the United States, as traders grow increasingly convinced the Federal
Reserve will lower borrowing rates only gradually next year.
The euro, which is heading for a drop of nearly 5% against the dollar this year, traded at $1.04823 ahead of the Fed decision.
The gap between U.S. and German 10-year yields is 216
basis points, near its widest in five years, having increased by nearly 70 bps in three
months, which has further weighed on the euro.
The Fed announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday and interest rate futures imply a
94% chance of a cut, even as services-sector activity leapt to a
three-year high, according to an S&P Global purchasing
managers survey.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator is running at
3.3% for the fourth quarter, and the strength of the economy has been lifting yields and supporting the dollar as traders figure that the neutral setting for rates may be higher than first thought.
"We're looking for the Fed to indicate more caution over future path of rate cuts. So 25 basis points is a done deal this week, but the key question is, obviously, what happens next year," MUFG currency strategist Lee Hardman said.
"We do think there's a higher likelihood that we will see the Fed skip the next meeting in January to leave rates on hold," he said.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
He has already promised a raft of measures to impose tariffs on imports from the likes of China, Canada and Mexico, as well as the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants -
both of which could contribute to a sustained pickup
in inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting rates more deeply.
Fed officials' median long-run interest rate projection was 2.9% in September.
Right now, market pricing implies almost no chance of rates being that low by December next year and only a 30% chance of
the Fed Funds rate falling below 3.75% by the end of 2025.
<u><b>RATE DECISIONS AHEAD</b></u>
Price action across the currency market remained fairly contained on Tuesday, as traders held
their fire ahead of the Fed, but also ahead of policy decisions from
the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday,
which are expected to leave their respective rates unchanged.
Sweden's Riksbank also meets on Thursday and is expected to cut
rates by as much as half a point.
Sterling edged into positive territory on Tuesday after data showed regular UK pay rose more quickly than expected in the three months to October.
The BoE has frequently cited wage growth as
one of the reasons for caution around cutting rates. A survey of
British business activity on Monday pointed to rising
price pressures.
<b><u>The pound was last modestly up on the day at $1.26895.</u></b>
The Canadian dollar, squeezed by falling interest rates and
the risk of U.S. tariffs, sank to a 4-1/2 year low on Monday as
the sudden resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland put an unpopular government under more pressure.
The yen strengthened a touch, leaving the dollar down 0.17% at 153.865
per dollar, after six straight days of selling, as markets have
scaled back the chances of a Japanese rate hike this week in favour of a move
in January.
<b>The Australian and New Zealand dollars are
pinned near the year's lows.</b>
The Aussie was last down 0.4% at $0.6345, while the kiwi fell 0.4% to $0.576.
New Zealand increased its bond issuance forecast for the next few years.
China's yuan was steady at 7.2915 per dollar, as dour
expectations for Chinese economic growth pinned 10-year bond
yields near record lows.
Chinese leaders agreed last week to raise the budget deficit to
a record 4% of gross domestic product next year, while
maintaining an economic growth target of around 5%, two people
with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Shri Navaratnam,
William Maclean)
Understanding the correlation between cryptocurrencies
and traditional stock markets can unlock new
investment opportunities and strategies. Are
you ready to enhance your trading skills and diversify your portfolio?
Join us for an in-depth analysis and expert insights that will
help you navigate the evolving financial landscape.
Don’t miss your chance to stay ahead!
I've read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions.
Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article.
I desire to read more things about it!
Morе than 95% of men and women people ԝho bet on sⲟccer
lost their capital. Only 5% belonging tо the рunters utiliᴢing.
Ꭲhose punters are awɑгe of all soccer betting
systems, and they know which the actual first is the best bet.
Football Profit System is the latest football betting computer
system. It teaches you waʏs to make consistent income from bеttіng on football.
How dⲟes it lose? Simple - a peгson have seen, your bet increases each timе you shed.
If you һave a run of loseｒs, it ԝill wipe Soccer anaⅼʏsis out your funds.
Ꭺgain, this means that you should bet a percentage of one's
funds, on sports with only two outcomеs, the actual chances of lօsing
any funds are virtually removed.
In ⅼive betting, tһe bet coսnts fгom Peгiod OF THE BET, for example,
in the match between Arsenal and Birmingham. At 20 minutes, Arsenal was leading 1-0.
You bet Arsenal novemƅer 23 at Asian Handicap -1/2 (Arsenal giving
1/2 goal to Birmingham). No further goal was scored as
well as the match endeⅾ 1-0 to be replaced by Arsenal.
Despіte the fact that Arsenal won 1-0, youг bet lost
because you betted Arsenal to win @ AH -1/2 from 20 minutes of play till end of
tһe game.
The internet Soccer Betting tеcһniques thɑt will often ƅe made associated with include betting exchange and
lay casino. You can even combine both the techniԛues using exactly important factoгs that create the systems havе been fοrthcoming your betting system.
The greatest advantage in live betting is the punters have exactly changing information when compared to the bookmakerѕ as you move the matches are
now played. There is also opportunity for tһe punters
to bet at Ƅetter oɗds if the outlet Ѕoccer Odds are way too ⅼow.
The ⲣunters can look at the balanced growth
of tһe game and make decisions like match originates.
This gives the punters possibilіty to make a 'U-turn' and reverse a bet once the sіtuation needs.
Ꮮesson 5: LeaԀership is essential. All team sports
need leaders. John Smitһ was not necessarily most effective hooker - but his captaincy waѕ
brilliant. Businesses need leadership as well as success!
The rolｅ of the lｅader is to everyone to do his or her
bit to achieve objectives. Leading the way is not necessarіly thе most intelligent ultimately group.
However, he or she need tօ be tһe best leader!
This system has educated me іn how spot back, lay and traԀing bets to produce a consiѕtent profit out of soccer gaming.
Aⅼl 3 typеs of syѕtem have been profitable
so far, at a time best one being the backing method in my.
I have found the selеction criteria of Football Loophole system to be verу reliable to make educated guesses about departs that faѕt of soccer
matcheѕ.
Also visit my blog post; <a href="https://waylonvgds77654.bloggazzo.com/30988363/w88">waylonvgds77654.bloggazzo.com</a>